Cyclone Luban, deep depression in Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Luban lay practically stationary over West-Central and adjoining South-West Arabian Sea as it lay 800 km East-South-East of Salalah (Oman), 680 km East of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 940 km East-South-East of Al Ghaidah (Yemen).

It is forecast to intensify into a severe cyclone later this evening and move west-northwestwards towards Yemen and South Oman coasts during the next five days.

Deep depression in Bay

Towards the other side of Peninsular India, yesterday's depression has intensified into a deep depression over West-Central Bay of Bengal and has remained practically stationary there. India Met Department (IMD) has located the system about 560 km south-east of Gopalpur (Odisha) and 510 km southeast of Kalingapatinam (Andhra Pradesh).

It is forecast to ramp up in strength to become into a tropical cyclone by tomorrow. It would cross Odisha and adjoining North Andhra Pradesh coasts between Gopalpur and Kalingapatnam around Thursday (October 11) morning.

After crossing the coast, it will weaken and come under the influence of a western disturbance and be guided to the opposite direction (north-east) towards the plains of Bengal. It is this movement of westerly systems from West Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and North-West India that seems to have temporarily halted cyclone Luban on its way over West-Central Arabian Sea.

Lull to befall seas

Earlier, some models had indicated that the Arabian Sea cyclone could also be influenced in this manner to change track and head towards the Karachi and adjoining Gujarat coasts. But these models seem to be indicating that its destination could be South Oman-Yemen or even the Gulf of Aden since the cyclone could move west-south-west as it approaches for a landfall.

Both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal would fall into a lull after expending a lot of energy in hosting cyclones. It could take the next 10 to 12 days for them to settle down. The US National Weather Services is of the view that both the seas may witness some buzz towards May 20 when likely rain-generating systems could show up afresh.

The wait for the north-easterly winds to establish over the seas and the South Peninsula could last that much longer, especially intervening systems just to the South of the Bay could siphon out moisture. Given these circumstances, the withdrawal of the South-West monsoon too has been halted over Andhra Pradesh. The North-East monsoon can set in only after the predecessor exits the country fully.